Ever wonder how long it should really take you to run a half-marathon, or marathon? Sure, there are plenty of textbook charts available that will tell how to predict a 10K, 10 mile, et al time based on your existing 5K time. Most of these have huge errors in them. I've yet to see anything as accurate as the log decay of pace theory. As a testament, my personal bests are all within 5 seconds of this predictor, all the way from the quarter mile up to the half-marathon!
With this slick piece of programming, you can enter an existing race result and predict a comparable time result for another distance. The equations are complex, so explaining the math behind this is not trivial either. In a nutshell, a properly trained runner will have a predictable pace decay for various distances. This pace decay is a logarithmic function of distance. Some of my variables are not yet properly tuned. I'm still learning javascript, I'll improve it over the next few weeks. For now, it tends to predict slightly faster times, but only by a few seconds.
How it works: Say you've run a few 5Ks and 10K's this year. You want to try to half-marathon. How should you pace yourself? With this program, you can enter one of your past performances and then enter the new distance at the bottom. Click a few buttons and presto! out pops your appropriate pace. This programs works in reverse also. You can predict your 400 yards performance from your marathon time!
Have Fun, and provide feedback please!!
| Enter the time you ran |
Click the button, and your pace/mile will be displayed
Now lets try to predict an equivalent time for some other distance
First, I'll need to find out some information specific to you. This customization
is based on experience data I've kept over the years. To expand my database, feedback is welcome.
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Click the button, and your predicted pace/mile will be displayed |